Intel Expects to Lose Server CPU Share to AMD for At Least 12 to 13 Quarters: No Comebacks Till 2025

Intel doesn’t sound too confident about its data center business. Going by Gelsginer’s words, it looks like the chipmaker expects to lose its server CPU market share for at least the next 12-13 quarters. AMD has already reached its highest market share ever across the client and server segments. As of the previous quarter, Team Red had conquered 20.2% of the server and 25% of the notebook processor market.

The second quarter of 2022 saw a particularly steep increase in AMD’s market. Its server share rose by 2.3% QoQ and 4.4% YoY. The desktop and notebook segments also grew by 3.5% and 4.8% YoY.

Company CEO Pat Gelsinger conceded that the competition (AMD) just has “too much momentum”, something that was only exacerbated by its poor execution. The 4th Gen Xeon “Sapphire Rapids-SP” processors have been delayed time and again with an eventual launch slated for H1 2023.

We do expect that overall our data center business grows every year as we go forward. From where we are, as we said, Q2, Q3 [is] the bottom. But we believe that we’re still losing share at least through next year. The competition just has too much momentum, and we haven’t executed well enough. So we expect that bottoming. The business will be growing, but we do expect that there continues to be some share losses. We’re not keeping up with the overall TAM growth until we get into ’25 and ’26 when we start regaining share, material share gains.

Now, obviously, in 2024, we think we’re competitive. 2025, we think we’re back to unquestioned leadership with our transistors and process technology.

Well, when we deliver the Forest product line, we deliver power performance leadership versus all Arm alternatives, as well. So now you go to a cloud service provider, and you say, ‘Well, why would I go through that butt ugly, heavy software lift to an ARM architecture versus continuing on the x86 family?

Intel CEO, Pat Gelsinger (Via: Tom’s Hardware)

The chipmaker expects this downward trend to continue at least till 2025, or perhaps even 2026 when the the 20A and 18A chips (supposedly rivaling or even beating TSMC) will release.

AMD has got a fully loaded roadmap across the board. We’ve got Genoa (96 core “Zen 4”) launching later this year, followed by Genoa-X (3D V-Cache) and Bergamo (128 core Zen 4c) as part of the 4th Gen Epyc lineup. All these chips will be fabbed on the TSMC 5nm process and vastly outclass Sapphire Rapids-SP in most respects.

Intel plans its own cloud processors in the form of Sierra Forest with at least 128 cores, fabbed on the i3 node. However, by the time it actually launches, AMD’s Turin and Bergamo-next will have already been released (or almost released).

Areej Syed

Processors, PC gaming, and the past. I have written about computer hardware for over seven years with over 5000 published articles. I started during engineering college and haven't stopped since. On the side, I play RPGs like Baldur's Gate, Dragon Age, Mass Effect, Divinity, and Fallout. Contact: areejs12@hardwaretimes.com.
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